Friday, 21 November 2014

Stating the Obvious : Sanctions are Real

By Nick Mangwana



A few decades ago in my Kutama days we were always told that to pass an exam you had to state the obvious. This is not an exam, neither am I trying to triumph in anything. I am just a simple man stating the obvious. Nothing sophisticated. Nothing you haven't heard before. And definitely  nothing ground breaking. Just a few home truths.

President Putin says that sanctions imposed by the West against Russia are illegal because they were not imposed through the United Nations.  Sounds familiar? Since these sanctions, the Russian currency called the rouble has tumbled. Russian economy is stuttering. Consequently Russia is now reaching out to cultivate tighter economic relationships with China; déjà vu. We have absolutely have witnessed this elsewhere.

The sanctions regime against Russia is packaged as travel bans against certain members of the Russian government, Duma, State allied companies and businessmen.  In its usual grandiloquent parlance, the West uses terms like "Smart sanctions" , "targeted sanctions" or "travel embargo". Again familiar words calculated to mislead.

Russia is a powerful country, in any man's language. It has oil and gas whose revenues account  for half of its budget. It is the world's second largest oil exporter. It is a very large country with a population of about 144 million. It is technologically and industrially developed with a diversified base.  Some still consider it a super power. In August 2014 Russia had a stockpile of $472 billion in hard currency and $1.5 trillion of assets. Seemingly enough to withstand the effect of the Western sanctions against it.

However this has not been the case. Its economy is now struggling. Russian banks have been cut off from accessing international finances. In response they have tightened their own lending to local banks.  State companies like the oil giant Rosneft have already started showing signs of financial distress. Rosneft has already asked the State to bail it out with $25 billion from the reserves for it to be able to refinance its debt. The growth rate is flat-lining with most objective analysts settling on 0.2%. If these things happen to a tree that is green (Russia), how much more would have happened to a dry one (Zimbabwe). Add 15 years of the same and you stop wondering why the obvious happened; the economy burned. It's a either a miracle or dextrous statecraft why we are still standing.

I can hear my nephew Courage sighing, "Here we go again. The sanctions rhetoric starts". You see, when the EU announced with a lot of bedlam that they had lifted sanctions against Zimbabwe, he sent me a text saying that now I should never write about sanctions or Zim Asset. He said he would stop reading my pieces the moment he sees those words. He said that people were tired of those words and the sanctions excuse (as he calls) was a fagged out argument. He said that Zanu PF should just raise its hands and admit to its failures.  Well, muzukuru Courage, firstly this is not a sanctions rhetoric, secondly and more importantly Zimbabwe is still under sanctions.

I would like to first concede a few points;  Zanu PF government has made some mistakes. It therefore is responsible for some failures. Of course, it is a government run by mortals and there cannot be infallible.   But to deny that ZIDERA 2001 and the EU Special Measures (sanctions) did not play a major role in the economic decline of our country is disingenuous muzukuru. This is quite obvious, isn't it?

In the same spirit of stating the obvious, here is another admission of guilt;  The current goings in my Party Zanu PF's as an exordium to the Congress is damaging the economy. Oh yes. I have said it. Now let's also talk about those sanctions packaged as travel bans against the First Family. It always starts in a village.

I grew up in a village. In a neighbouring one, there was patriarch known as Mr Magodoza.  Mr Magodoza  was maliciously accused  of  some heinous crimes against his daughters. The stigma of the accusations against the old chap caused so much suffering to the rest his clan. Mothers discouraged their daughters from marrying into that clan. Fathers and uncles kept away their sons and nephews. Those daughters who persisted had a king's ransom tagged for lobola. Even some of those who had already married suffered premature matrimonial dissolutions. It was not only nuptial issues that were affected.

Community relations were that.  it was normal for people  borrow salt, sugar  or fire. For those not familiar with the latter let me explain what might seems obvious to the rest. In the village when one wanted to ignite a fire, they would use a match. In many cases there would be none. One would then have to send a child to the next homestead to borrow some burning coal from their hearth to use as a kindle to fire up their own hearth (kugoka moto). This was very important otherwise you would not have a cooked meal.  Magodoza's clan suffered such social isolation that this very simple transaction became anathema to the rest of the village.

 In the village we had a cattle  exchange system or loaning system known as kuronza mombe (of the mombe yekuronzerwa kama wakaringa nzira fame). One who needed a cow for milk would swap with one who needed an ox for tilling the furrow. This is just day to day village life. With the Magodozas these  transactions were not only rescinded, but when they did happen they were so lop-sided and unfair. 

The stigma from the accusations against Magodoza  affected all inter-clan and kinsmen transactions.  Even though it later emerged that the accusations were malevolent the clan had already suffered from structural cleavage. Decades later they are still recovering from it. A patriarch is the nexus of all clan kinship, transactions and social organisation. By the same token a head of state is the sovereign embodiment of a nation's being. 

I am sure the reader has heard enough of my village story and folklore.  I apologise for going on and on. It would be helpful if the reader would now connect Magodoza's story with the sanctions against the First Family. Alternatively, let me state the obvious again at the risk of sounding mundane and banal.


When a Head of State is placed under sanctions. It can appear innocuous to the citizenry. You hear people asking why they would care if Mugabe and wife are stopped from going shopping in Europe.
No Cdes, if I were a rich president would I waste my time moving between racks of clothes checking sizes and trying out? Most of us hate the dressing and undressing in changing rooms that comes with buying off-the-rack clothes. Those with money and power normally call in an exclusive designer to come and take their measurements and outfit them. Bespoke fashion would be the obvious choice. I wouldn't need to go shopping in Europe.  My European tastes would come to me. History is replete with examples of such( Mobutu's extravagance for starters). They import extravagant luxuries from all over the world. They don't have to be physically there to do it. Doh.

 These sanctions are not  about that. It's not about travelling, it's not about shopping, it is neither about filthy lucre stashed away somewhere.  it is about stigmatising a country and demonising it. The religious Cdes will know that if you strike the shepherd, the sheep will scatter. You put a sanctions stain on a head of state, you blight the whole country and its economic system.

The country struggles to service its debts.  A country under sanctions has a very low credit rating as it is considered very risky. It cannot access lines of credit or attract foreign direct investment. Joint ventures with foreign companies are near impossible. Most of us saw the exchange between young Takunda Chingonzo and President Obama. We also know that his company Saisai and him personally were never on the sanctions list. Despite this he articulated how substantially affected he was by the so-called targeted sanctions. Here was an example of how effective the stigma and resultant stealthy sanctions have had on Zimbabwe and its employment capacity.


Let us remember the patriarch Magodoza. Let us remember the great bear, Russia. If Russian economy is tottering on the brink in spite of its G8 status, how much more for our little Zimbabwe, which is  just a harmless flame lily? So yes, Courage wehazvanzi, before I stop writing about sanctions and Zim Asset I will always need to once in a while state the obvious. One such obvious is that, if the President is under sanctions, Zimbabwe is under sanctions. 


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Nick Mangwana: Chairman; ZANU PF UK

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